Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.456682 14.270567 16.226934 18.490164 21.032466 23.796185 27.024122
2025-03-30 9.955254 12.443611 15.336534 18.933216 23.268694 28.308998 34.594108
2025-04-06 8.442343 11.167544 14.492800 18.820842 24.274028 30.882864 39.460732
2025-04-13 6.917623 9.648390 13.133572 17.865096 24.071889 31.881482 42.387644
2025-04-20 6.269408 9.138295 12.938438 18.279070 25.518313 34.906624 47.904156
2025-04-27 5.716046 8.677300 12.735893 18.622212 26.841033 37.792979 53.348257
2025-05-04 5.114523 8.072111 12.259552 18.516362 27.499010 39.775902 57.632147
2025-05-11 4.558337 7.468099 11.717774 18.249728 27.876817 41.350784 61.387164
2025-05-18 4.159683 7.056013 11.409553 18.277701 28.646412 43.475488 65.973956
2025-05-25 3.857271 6.760291 11.242986 18.488344 29.672379 45.989023 71.203937
2025-06-01 3.538820 6.405360 10.950445 18.472729 30.337917 47.984887 75.743284
2025-06-08 3.223225 6.022983 10.579356 18.297248 30.729946 49.569408 79.715113
2025-06-15 3.000533 5.783734 10.429219 18.476324 31.704283 52.110067 85.299114
2025-06-22 2.873689 5.700541 10.530083 19.069497 33.368079 55.786090 92.790082
2025-06-29 2.628380 5.378373 10.196044 18.904045 33.774881 57.495554 97.266772
2025-07-06 2.285361 4.840149 9.441533 17.961930 32.828608 56.991243 98.195260
2025-07-13 2.180359 4.744716 9.464870 18.371701 34.174646 60.234447 105.258173
2025-07-20 2.074578 4.637089 9.455892 18.718604 35.423345 63.361820 112.246881
2025-07-27 1.917533 4.410818 9.207780 18.611497 35.865900 65.156335 117.094212
2025-08-03 1.755071 4.156926 8.886426 18.343898 36.001137 66.426060 121.098817
2025-08-10 1.641447 3.994838 8.729434 18.371908 36.663834 68.615230 126.732058
2025-08-17 1.556947 3.887510 8.671722 18.583556 37.668067 71.429227 133.532591
2025-08-24 1.455264 3.731859 8.504148 18.567858 38.243684 73.506800 139.124358